The Seasons They Are a Changin’: Testing for Seasonal Effects of Potentially Criminogenic Places on Street Robbery

Purpose: To examine a component of crime pattern theory by exploring whether the spatial predictors of crime vary across seasons. Methods: The relationships among potentially criminogenic places and illicit markets and seasonal census block robbery counts in Philadelphia, PA, were explored using simultaneously estimated negative binomial regression models. The equality of predictors’ effects on street robbery across seasons was subsequently tested using Wald’s tests. Results: While many facilities and illicit markets were positively associated with street robbery, there were few seasonal differences in their effects. Only the effect of high schools during the fall was greater than during the winter and summer as hypothesized. Conclusions: The results suggest areas with facilities and illicit markets that are used consistently across the year experience the highest street robbery levels regardless of the season.