TY - JOUR
T1 - The Emerging Clusters Model
T2 - A tool for identifying emerging technologies across multiple patent systems
AU - Breitzman, Anthony
AU - Thomas, Patrick
N1 - Funding Information:
The purpose of the scoring step is thus to identify those next generation clusters that are most likely to contain patents describing significant, rather than incremental, technological developments. To develop this scoring step, we built on earlier work ( Breitzman and Thomas, 2007 ) linking clusters of patents to research funded by the NIST Advanced Technology Program (ATP). 1 1
Funding Information:
Supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) via Department of Interior National Business Center contract number D11PC20154; and by the US Department of Defense (DOD) via contract number HQ0034-12-C-0041. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright annotation thereon.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
PY - 2015/2/1
Y1 - 2015/2/1
N2 - Emerging technologies are of great interest to a wide range of stakeholders, but identifying such technologies is often problematic, especially given the overwhelming amount of information available to analysts and researchers on many subjects. This paper describes the Emerging Clusters Model, which uses advanced patent citation techniques to locate emerging technologies in close to real time, rather than retrospectively. The model covers multiple patent systems, and is designed to be extensible to additional systems. This paper also describes the first large scale test of the Emerging Clusters Model. This test reveals that patents in emerging clusters consistently have a significantly higher impact on subsequent technological developments than patents outside these clusters. Given that these emerging clusters are defined as soon as a given time period ends, without the aid of any forward-looking information, this suggests that the Emerging Clusters Model may be a useful tool for identifying interesting new technologies as they emerge.
AB - Emerging technologies are of great interest to a wide range of stakeholders, but identifying such technologies is often problematic, especially given the overwhelming amount of information available to analysts and researchers on many subjects. This paper describes the Emerging Clusters Model, which uses advanced patent citation techniques to locate emerging technologies in close to real time, rather than retrospectively. The model covers multiple patent systems, and is designed to be extensible to additional systems. This paper also describes the first large scale test of the Emerging Clusters Model. This test reveals that patents in emerging clusters consistently have a significantly higher impact on subsequent technological developments than patents outside these clusters. Given that these emerging clusters are defined as soon as a given time period ends, without the aid of any forward-looking information, this suggests that the Emerging Clusters Model may be a useful tool for identifying interesting new technologies as they emerge.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.respol.2014.06.006
DO - 10.1016/j.respol.2014.06.006
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84916878702
SN - 0048-7333
VL - 44
SP - 195
EP - 205
JO - Research Policy
JF - Research Policy
IS - 1
ER -