The Emerging Clusters Model: A tool for identifying emerging technologies across multiple patent systems

Anthony Breitzman, Patrick Thomas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

56 Scopus citations

Abstract

Emerging technologies are of great interest to a wide range of stakeholders, but identifying such technologies is often problematic, especially given the overwhelming amount of information available to analysts and researchers on many subjects. This paper describes the Emerging Clusters Model, which uses advanced patent citation techniques to locate emerging technologies in close to real time, rather than retrospectively. The model covers multiple patent systems, and is designed to be extensible to additional systems. This paper also describes the first large scale test of the Emerging Clusters Model. This test reveals that patents in emerging clusters consistently have a significantly higher impact on subsequent technological developments than patents outside these clusters. Given that these emerging clusters are defined as soon as a given time period ends, without the aid of any forward-looking information, this suggests that the Emerging Clusters Model may be a useful tool for identifying interesting new technologies as they emerge.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)195-205
Number of pages11
JournalResearch Policy
Volume44
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2015
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Management of Technology and Innovation

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