TY - JOUR
T1 - Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias-corrected multi-model ensemble projections considering high-emission pathways
AU - Fahad, Md Golam Rabbani
AU - Saiful Islam, A. K.M.
AU - Nazari, Rouzbeh
AU - Alfi Hasan, M.
AU - Tarekul Islam, G. M.
AU - Bala, Sujit Kumar
N1 - Funding Information:
This research leading to these results is part of the collaborative project High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) implemented by Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) and the Exeter University, UK funded by European Union. We also acknowledge Aristeidis Koutroulis and Manolis Grillakis of Technical University Crete for providing bias-corrected RCP8.5 data. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Table 1 of this article) for producing and making available their model outputs. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
PY - 2018/3/30
Y1 - 2018/3/30
N2 - A multi-model ensemble provides useful information about the uncertainty of the future changes of climate. High-emission scenarios using representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) of the Fifth Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also aids to capture the possible extremity of the climate change. Using the CMIP5 regional climate modelling predictions, this study analyses the distribution of the temperature and precipitation in Bangladesh in the recent years (1971–2000) and in three future periods (2010–2040, 2041–2070 and 2070–2100) considering RCP8.5 scenarios. Climate changes are expressed in terms of 30-year return values of annual near-surface temperature and 24-h precipitation amounts. At the end of the century, the mean temperature increase over Bangladesh among the 11 RCMs will vary from 5.77 to 3.24 °C. Spatial analysis of the 11 RCMs exhibited that the southwest and the south central parts of Bangladesh will experience a greater temperature rise in the future. Possible changes in rainfall are also exhibited both temporally and spatially. Based on the analysis of all the RCMs, a significant increase of rainfall in the pre- and post-monsoon period is observed. It is also evident that monsoon rainfall will not increase in comparison with pre-monsoon season. Zonal statistics of 64 districts of Bangladesh are also conducted for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s to find out the most exposed regions in terms of the highest rise in temperature and changes in precipitation.
AB - A multi-model ensemble provides useful information about the uncertainty of the future changes of climate. High-emission scenarios using representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) of the Fifth Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also aids to capture the possible extremity of the climate change. Using the CMIP5 regional climate modelling predictions, this study analyses the distribution of the temperature and precipitation in Bangladesh in the recent years (1971–2000) and in three future periods (2010–2040, 2041–2070 and 2070–2100) considering RCP8.5 scenarios. Climate changes are expressed in terms of 30-year return values of annual near-surface temperature and 24-h precipitation amounts. At the end of the century, the mean temperature increase over Bangladesh among the 11 RCMs will vary from 5.77 to 3.24 °C. Spatial analysis of the 11 RCMs exhibited that the southwest and the south central parts of Bangladesh will experience a greater temperature rise in the future. Possible changes in rainfall are also exhibited both temporally and spatially. Based on the analysis of all the RCMs, a significant increase of rainfall in the pre- and post-monsoon period is observed. It is also evident that monsoon rainfall will not increase in comparison with pre-monsoon season. Zonal statistics of 64 districts of Bangladesh are also conducted for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s to find out the most exposed regions in terms of the highest rise in temperature and changes in precipitation.
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U2 - 10.1002/joc.5284
DO - 10.1002/joc.5284
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85043362518
VL - 38
SP - 1634
EP - 1648
JO - International Journal of Climatology
JF - International Journal of Climatology
SN - 0899-8418
IS - 4
ER -