Incorporating water into land system science: Jevons' paradox, Center Pivot Irrigation (CPI), and socioecological resilience in a transboundary area of the Southern Great Plains (SGP)

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is subject to cyclical drought and growing dependence on groundwater for irrigation. The drawdown of the Ogallala Aquifer threatens socioecological resilience of rural agricultural communities. Here, center pivot irrigation (CPI) has been introduced as a technological solution for efficient water consumption. We argue that Land System Science (LSS) needs to include more direct engagement with water as both a material and hydrosocially produced object integral to the study of land. Using Jevons' Paradox and the case of CPI growth in two counties/states between 2005 and 2020, we draw on a remote sensing analysis of irrigated and dryland agriculture, household surveys, and key informant interviews to triangulate results for more holistic understandings of land-water-people dynamics. Remote sensing results show large growth in CPI with a more recent slowing down of growth rates, while the proportion of irrigated to non-irrigated agriculture is increasing, raising questions of long-term water sustainability. The household survey results and key-informant interviews reveal a nuanced view of irrigation dynamics, illustrating tensions between residents' perceptions regarding water sustainability and the reality of their lived experiences. While ambiguity exists, most respondents perceive their situation to be more precarious as a result of irrigation (irrespective of the adoption and growth of CPI technologies). Moreover, decision-making is largely predicated on economic (rather than environmental) factors. The Jevons' Paradox framework illustrates that CPI appears to have the opposite effect of its original intentions, as the majority of residents feel that CPI makes them more vulnerable in the long run.