@article{9a2dfa245f304984b245efbf2cc87749,
title = "Impact of climate change on New York City{\textquoteright}s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE",
abstract = "The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ~500 y before 1800 to ~25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ~5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica{\textquoteright}s potential partial collapse.",
author = "Garner, {Andra J.} and Mann, {Michael E.} and Emanuel, {Kerry A.} and Kopp, {Robert E.} and Ning Lin and Alley, {Richard B.} and Horton, {Benjamin P.} and DeConto, {Robert M.} and Donnelly, {Jeffrey P.} and David Pollard",
note = "Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Sonya Miller for technical assistance and David Titley, Raymond Najjar, and Gregory Garner for advice, comments, and input. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme{\textquoteright}s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the MPI, CCSM4, IPSL, HadGEM, GFDL, MRI, and MIROC climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. This work was supported by NOAA Grants 424-18 45GZ and NA11OAR4310101, NSF Grants OCE 1458904, EAR 1520683, ATM-1446329, and EAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Funding Information: 1625150, the Community Foundation of New Jersey, and David and Arleen McGlade. For CMIP the US Department of Energy{\textquoteright}s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We acknowledge PALSEA2 (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise), which is a working group of Past Global Changes/IMAGES (International Marine Past Global Change Study) and an International Focus Group of the International Union for Quaternary Research, and International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) Project 639, “Sea Level Change from Minutes to Millennia.” This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 161. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017, National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.",
year = "2017",
month = nov,
day = "7",
doi = "10.1073/pnas.1703568114",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "114",
pages = "11861--11866",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
issn = "0027-8424",
publisher = "National Academy of Sciences",
number = "45",
}