TY - JOUR
T1 - Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate
AU - Garner, Andra J.
AU - Kopp, Robert E.
AU - Horton, Benjamin P.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors wish to thank Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) for the generation and use of synthetic TC data sets for this analysis, and Gregory Garner (Rutgers University) for his code to parse Best Tracks data. This work was supported by funding from the National Science Foundation awarded to A. J. Garner (EAR‐1625150) and R. E. Kopp (ICER‐1663807). B. P. Horton is supported by the Earth Observatory of Singapore via its funding from the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019‐T3‐1‐004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative. This work comprises Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution no. 414.
Funding Information:
The authors wish to thank Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) for the generation and use of synthetic TC data sets for this analysis, and Gregory Garner (Rutgers University) for his code to parse Best Tracks data. This work was supported by funding from the National Science Foundation awarded to A. J. Garner (EAR-1625150) and R. E. Kopp (ICER-1663807). B. P. Horton is supported by the Earth Observatory of Singapore via its funding from the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative. This work comprises Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution no. 414.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors.
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre-industrial era (850–1800 CE) to the modern era (1970–2005 CE) to the future (2080–2100 CE). Under a very high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre-industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.
AB - Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre-industrial era (850–1800 CE) to the modern era (1970–2005 CE) to the future (2080–2100 CE). Under a very high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre-industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.
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U2 - 10.1029/2021EF002326
DO - 10.1029/2021EF002326
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85121644461
SN - 2328-4277
VL - 9
JO - Earth's Future
JF - Earth's Future
IS - 12
M1 - e2021EF002326
ER -