Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate

Andra J. Garner, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Scopus citations


Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre-industrial era (850–1800 CE) to the modern era (1970–2005 CE) to the future (2080–2100 CE). Under a very high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre-industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2021EF002326
JournalEarth's Future
Issue number12
StatePublished - Dec 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)


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