Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Tina Dura; Andra J. Garner; Robert Weiss; Robert E. Kopp; Simon E. Engelhart; Robert C. Witter; Richard W. Briggs; Charles S. Mueller; Alan R. Nelson; Benjamin P. Horton

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Tina Dura, Andra J. Garner, Robert Weiss, Robert E. Kopp, Simon E. Engelhart, Robert C. Witter, Richard W. Briggs, Charles S. Mueller, Alan R. Nelson, Benjamin P. Horton

Environmental Science

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

15 Scopus citations

Abstract

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~M_w9.1 (required today) to M_w8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	7119
Journal	Nature communications
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8
State	Published - Dec 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Chemistry
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Physics and Astronomy

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title = "Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise",

abstract = "The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.",

author = "Tina Dura and Garner, {Andra J.} and Robert Weiss and Kopp, {Robert E.} and Engelhart, {Simon E.} and Witter, {Robert C.} and Briggs, {Richard W.} and Mueller, {Charles S.} and Nelson, {Alan R.} and Horton, {Benjamin P.}",

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AU - Dura, Tina

AU - Garner, Andra J.

AU - Weiss, Robert

AU - Kopp, Robert E.

AU - Engelhart, Simon E.

AU - Witter, Robert C.

AU - Briggs, Richard W.

AU - Mueller, Charles S.

AU - Nelson, Alan R.

AU - Horton, Benjamin P.

PY - 2021/12

Y1 - 2021/12

N2 - The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

AB - The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

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Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Abstract

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