A markov chain model for fatigue crack growth, inspection and repair: The relationship between probability of detection, reliability and number of repairs in fleets of railroad tank cars

William T. Riddell, James Lynch

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

    Abstract

    A Markov chain model to simulate the process of fatigue crack growth, non-destructive inspection and repair in a fleet of railroad tank cars is developed and presented. Crack growth is modeled to reproduce crack shapes that were observed during destructive tear-down tests at the end of life for several tank cars. The Markov chain model is further extended to include non-destructive inspections using POD curves that were established during baseline tests of several methods used in the railroad tank car industry. Next, the model is used to predict the effect of various non-destructive inspection techniques on fatigue-related reliability of the fleet, as well as the number of repairs that are required as a result of the inspections.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Article numberPVP2005-71671
    Pages (from-to)411-418
    Number of pages8
    JournalAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers, Pressure Vessels and Piping Division (Publication) PVP
    Volume7
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Dec 23 2005
    Event2005 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference, PVP2005 - Denver, CO, United States
    Duration: Jul 17 2005Jul 21 2005

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Mechanical Engineering

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