A markov chain model for fatigue crack growth, inspection and repair: The relationship between probability of detection, reliability and number of repairs in fleets of railroad tank cars

William T. Riddell; James Lynch

doi:10.1115/PVP2005-71671

A markov chain model for fatigue crack growth, inspection and repair: The relationship between probability of detection, reliability and number of repairs in fleets of railroad tank cars

William T. Riddell, James Lynch

Civil Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review

Abstract

A Markov chain model to simulate the process of fatigue crack growth, non-destructive inspection and repair in a fleet of railroad tank cars is developed and presented. Crack growth is modeled to reproduce crack shapes that were observed during destructive tear-down tests at the end of life for several tank cars. The Markov chain model is further extended to include non-destructive inspections using POD curves that were established during baseline tests of several methods used in the railroad tank car industry. Next, the model is used to predict the effect of various non-destructive inspection techniques on fatigue-related reliability of the fleet, as well as the number of repairs that are required as a result of the inspections.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	PVP2005-71671
Pages (from-to)	411-418
Number of pages	8
Journal	American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Pressure Vessels and Piping Division (Publication) PVP
Volume	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1115/PVP2005-71671
State	Published - Dec 23 2005
Event	2005 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference, PVP2005 - Denver, CO, United States Duration: Jul 17 2005 → Jul 21 2005

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Mechanical Engineering

Access to Document

10.1115/PVP2005-71671

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Riddell, W. T., & Lynch, J. (2005). A markov chain model for fatigue crack growth, inspection and repair: The relationship between probability of detection, reliability and number of repairs in fleets of railroad tank cars. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Pressure Vessels and Piping Division (Publication) PVP, 7, 411-418. [PVP2005-71671]. https://doi.org/10.1115/PVP2005-71671

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abstract = "A Markov chain model to simulate the process of fatigue crack growth, non-destructive inspection and repair in a fleet of railroad tank cars is developed and presented. Crack growth is modeled to reproduce crack shapes that were observed during destructive tear-down tests at the end of life for several tank cars. The Markov chain model is further extended to include non-destructive inspections using POD curves that were established during baseline tests of several methods used in the railroad tank car industry. Next, the model is used to predict the effect of various non-destructive inspection techniques on fatigue-related reliability of the fleet, as well as the number of repairs that are required as a result of the inspections.",

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Riddell, WT & Lynch, J 2005, 'A markov chain model for fatigue crack growth, inspection and repair: The relationship between probability of detection, reliability and number of repairs in fleets of railroad tank cars', American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Pressure Vessels and Piping Division (Publication) PVP, vol. 7, PVP2005-71671, pp. 411-418. https://doi.org/10.1115/PVP2005-71671

A markov chain model for fatigue crack growth, inspection and repair : The relationship between probability of detection, reliability and number of repairs in fleets of railroad tank cars. / Riddell, William T.; Lynch, James.

In: American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Pressure Vessels and Piping Division (Publication) PVP, Vol. 7, PVP2005-71671, 23.12.2005, p. 411-418.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review

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Riddell WT, Lynch J. A markov chain model for fatigue crack growth, inspection and repair: The relationship between probability of detection, reliability and number of repairs in fleets of railroad tank cars. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Pressure Vessels and Piping Division (Publication) PVP. 2005 Dec 23;7:411-418. PVP2005-71671. https://doi.org/10.1115/PVP2005-71671